"On the surface, Russia seems to be a nation on the march...But today's appearance of strength hides growing weakness that could do more damage to American interests than any mischief Russia can cause today. Russia is fast approaching a monumental transformation, one that promises to be as profound as the collapse of the U.S.S.R. 20 years ago. The result could spell the end of the nation as we know it."
"Russia's Slavic population is dwindling, eaten away by declining life expectancy, rampant drug and alcohol abuse, and low fertility. By mid-century, the Russian Federation's population could shrink 25% from its current 143 million."
"Russia's demographic problem might be even worse than it appears, however. The country's Muslims are faring relatively well. By 2020, the Muslim minority could make up a fifth of its population."
"Russia faces similar pressure in Siberia and its Far East regions, which cover more than 4 million square miles. The population of less than 26 million, some six inhabitants per square mile (less than Wyoming) is dropping...As the Russian state recedes in the Far East, it is being replaced there by a rising and energy-hungry China...with population trends working in its favor, China is working to speed up Russia's decline, and its own advance. It is doing so through legal and illegal migration into the region, as well as sustained investments on a scale that has eclipsed those of the Kremlin. As a result, the future of the Far East is in flux, with Russia's position as a global energy player and a major international power at stake."
"All of which, in turn, will threaten America and the West in new and grave ways in the years ahead. Because, if much of the last century was defined by the rise of Russia (in the form of the Soviet Union), a great deal of this one is destined to be shaped by its failure, with all of the global instability that portends."
Рассказывает поподробнее - тут.